Migration and the sovereign firm - Gray Mirror - Mencius Moldbug (Curtis...

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Transcript
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[Music]
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migration and The Sovereign firm flushed
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with pride from an election win alas
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probably still just another cheap hit of
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publicity crack huge in the moment and
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historically ephemeral but who knows a
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the two halves of the so-called new
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right rationalists and traditionalists
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have started our new era off in fine
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American Style by squabbling in public
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over narrated by skeptical waves
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published Sunday December 29th 2024 by
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Curtis yarvin flushed with pride from an
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election win alas probably still just
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another cheap hit of publicity crack
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huge in the moment and historically
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ephemeral but who knows a the two halves
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of the so-called new right rationalists
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and traditionalists have started our new
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era off in fine American Style by
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squabbling in public over Indian visas
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cool for me this spat just illustrates
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the inadequacy of the standard liberal
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framework of political science that
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history has condemned both sides to live
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in liberalism as we know it is only
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about 250 years old a shorter lifespan
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than some Chinese dynasties and only for
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about the last 50 years has it so
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completely excluded premodern thinking
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the shared Heritage of the European and
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antique worlds combined that even most
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of us conservative intellectuals have
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forgotten how to think about political
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science rigorously within a priber
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framework we can still think intuitively
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like peasants about the meaning of the
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nation state there is much to be said
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for course peasant wisdom but when we
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think analytically like lawyers or
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professors we have no choice but to
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think as liberals conservative politics
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comes from Lock and at best Cicero
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conservative economics is from Smith and
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at best Mees great thinkers but in a
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narrow tradition in this essay we'll
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develop an analytical post- liberal
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framework that will let us think as
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concretely in a liberal framework as
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liberals do in their liberal framework
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about questions like open borders and
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free trade the migration question very
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smart conservatives of today when they
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think about immigration in specific have
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no choice but to surrender to either of
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these modes if you are against the free
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movement of Labor the only mode in which
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you can express yourself as intuitive or
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even downright romantic the more you do
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this the more you sound like musolini
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this doesn't mean you're wrong but it
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doesn't bode well either however when
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you surrender to your analytical side
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you can feel yourself turning into the
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world's worst kind of spurk you know you
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are wrong but all the known formulas say
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you're right what do in the end the
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choice always comes down to what kind of
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person you are while Trump is a purely
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intuitive person a genuine intuitive
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genius musk is something even more rare
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an intuitive genius and an analytical
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genius the trouble is that sometimes
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both these Geniuses Collide and the
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latter always takes precedence this
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would be fine if he was using the right
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analytical formula unfortunately musk's
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libertarian framework is the political
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science equivalent of Newtonian
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mechanics an oversimplification which
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works only in special cases and even
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more unfortunately our own time and
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place does not seem to be within one of
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these Newtonian envelopes intuition can
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compensate only so much for bad analysis
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within musk's framework skilled
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immigration or whatever euphemism stands
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behind this term feels like an easy win
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math always beats intuition but what if
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the formula is missing a term
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analytically it feels like the effect of
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skilled immigration abstractly on
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productivity is not measurable but is
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quantifiable whereas the negative impact
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if any on society is neither measurable
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nor quantifiable it's hard to pick
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unquantifiable over quantifiable what is
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society anyway what process of
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scientific government could support this
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once you get used to choosing anything
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intangible over efficiency efficiency
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goes out the window Sovereign accounting
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and labor migration the traditionalists
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understand an extremely important
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analytical principle but they have no
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analytical model for this principle so
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they can only express it intuitively in
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fact the negative impact of free
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movement in labor while hard to measure
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is easy to quantify the same is true of
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its close relative free movement in
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Goods but elon's classical accounting
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formula is missing the term that would
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quantify these impacts let's try to
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correct it by adding back the relativity
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term it is correct to define the
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government as a company the nation is a
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sovereign firm or if we prefer the firm
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is a sort of second order virtual nation
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state the two concepts are clearly
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different in a clear way yet clearly
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related in a clear way can we generalize
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across them of course but we have to do
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it right it is tempting to conclude that
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the economic purpose of a firm is to
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create valuable goods and services
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whereas the economic purpose of a
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government is to maximize GDP the total
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sum of goods and services created by the
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nation this is what I call Newtonian
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accounting it is actually wrong for both
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firms and governments this accounting is
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wrong for firms because maximizing
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productive output is not the goal of a
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firm maximizing the value of its capital
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is the goal of a firm while these goals
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are directionally similar and often
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align they can easily diverge capital is
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traditionally measured by an efficient
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Equity Market the goal of a CEO is to
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make the investors happy by making the
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stock go up the Market's estimate of the
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company's capitalization corresponds to
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its estimate of its future profit until
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Infinity discounted by the interest rate
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because Double Entry accounting this
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must equal the total value of its
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tangible assets factories Etc and
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intangible assets brand value Etc while
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profit generally corresponds to revenue
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they are not the same thing you can sell
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a lot of dollars for 99 moreover
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estimating the value of capital involves
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a little thing called depreciation
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factories houses and other forms of
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capital wear out when you use them some
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forms of capital can even experience
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appreciation they get more valuable land
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can appreciate all this has to go in the
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quarterly report if you ignore the
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appreciation and depreciation of your
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Capital you are driving a rented car no
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one ever changed the oil in a rented car
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maximizing GDP as a national accounting
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policy means we are maximizing the total
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utility delivered by the productive
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sector to the consumptive sector all
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systems of modern Economic Policy from
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socialism to capitalism are agreed on
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this goal socialists want to use the
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visible hand to shift production from
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luxuries for the rich to Necessities for
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the poor this means they measure utility
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in a different way a way not captured by
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summing up dollars a th000 bushels of
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wheat sent to Ghana produces more user
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utility than one PCH Philipe sent to
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London okay sure in case you didn't know
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Africa Imports 85% of its food
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capitalists point out that the Damage
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Done by the visible hand often exceeds
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its utility even by the Socialist
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definition okay sure but notice what
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they both agree on maximizing utility
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isn't the goal of the productive sector
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to produce utility what else could we
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optimize for what other kind of formula
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could we optimize for well we could
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optimize for the same goal as a private
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firm maximizing the value of our Capital
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this would involve thinking about
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appreciation SL depreciation of capital
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but what exactly are the capital assets
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of the state human capital and The
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Sovereign firm here is where Elon Musk
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and I disagree almost everyone today
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agrees with Elon even the
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traditionalists almost all of them agree
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with Elon which is why they have so much
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trouble expressing their point
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analytically intuitively they get it
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perfectly essentially everyone today is
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a liberal Libertarians are liberals
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conservatives are liberals and Liberals
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are liberals they are all using the
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wrong analytical framework historically
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however almost everyone agrees with me
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the Newtonian or liberal view is in fact
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an English view from the 17th century
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unfortunately just because it took over
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the world doesn't make it true
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the liberal modern view is that the
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state exists to serve its citizens the
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state in its supervision of Commerce
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aims to maximize the utility produced by
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the economy the purpose of government is
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to protect a free people in their
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Pursuit of Happiness the IL liberal
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premodern view is that the state owns
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its subjects there are no citizens there
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are only subjects to put it as
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pejoratively as we possibly can State
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slaves the purpose of government is to
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render these slaves as productive as
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possible which because Double Entry
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counting means making them as valuable
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as possible to a modern liberal
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libertarian or conservative this is the
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most offensive possible Declaration of
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authoritarianism or even totalitarianism
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to Plato it is Tuesday musk assumes he
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understands political science better
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than Plato just because he understands
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physics better than Plato actually Plato
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is right the nation is the people the
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state is the owner of the nation the
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land structures and people which are its
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Sovereign property ownership means
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exclusive Dominion this is the
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relationship between the state and the
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subject some arms of the state may
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sometimes protect the subject from other
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arms of the state but every state
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considered as a whole can do whatever it
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wants to any of its subjects and in as
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much as it cannot it is not a state at
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all since a state is an organization
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which owns territory and people the only
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difference between a state and a
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plantation is a size and B Independence
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on a plantation within a state the
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relationship between mass and slave can
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at least be checked by the state between
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sovereign state and individual the
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individual has no defense at all this is
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the very definition of sovereignty
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anyone who does not believe in Sovereign
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property is fundamentally an anarchist
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that he still believes in personal and
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corporate private property is only a
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slight mitigation of his destructive and
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incorrigible leftism which do to States
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what socialism does to companies
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fortunately this anarchism does not
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prevent the sovereign state from
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existing only from analyzing itself
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clearly and rigorously if the subjects
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of a government are treated as assets on
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its National balance sheet as human
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capital that means it owns them that
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means it has to safeguard them it has to
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protect and nurture them and it is
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responsible for their appreciation or
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depreciation here is a way to quantify
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the traditional responsibility of the
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state for the common good which
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conservatives but not Libertarians
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believe in a government that does not
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think of itself as owning its subjects
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perhaps some kind of temporary military
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occupation can afford to disregard this
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term in the formula this is why
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temporary military occupation can be
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quite careless of the common good the
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general in charge is essentially driving
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a rented car to traditionalists it seems
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that musk and his fellow open borders
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billionaires want to drive America like
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a rented car but they need an analytical
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framework that can express this
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intuitive truth what is Quantified does
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not need to be measured the USG is not
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necessarily selling its valuable
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citizens slaves overseas like a European
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soccer team it is enough to think about
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the value of a human being in an AB ract
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sense but the classical State trades in
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an exogenous currency one it cannot
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create and its balance of trade is the
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exact analog of the private company's
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profit and loss when we see a trade
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surplus we see a profitable company when
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we see a trade deficit we see a money
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burning company the trade surplus is a
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measure of the productivity of the state
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subjects again compare China to America
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here and we know what makes human beings
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more valuable in almost every sense work
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ideally complex challenges work that
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tests the limits of some craft skill or
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trade we sense that a valuable human
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being professionally or otherwise is one
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who has done the most to develop a
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lifelong profession at the edge of their
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human capacity China has developed not
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just by building factories but by
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building people who know how to boiled
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and work in factories work and meaning
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and profit cannot be separated humans
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like robots can be productive but as
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capital they obey very different rules
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for a machine production implies
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depreciation for a human production
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implies appreciation there are
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exceptions Health damaging trades but
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they are exceptions we know what does
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not make human beings more valuable in
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almost every sense consumption at least
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consumption once it gets past the level
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of basic necessity the GDP mindset makes
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almost zero sense from the standpoint of
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nation as firm in fact the more luxuries
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you produce for your citizens the softer
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weaker and less productive they get and
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they do not just suffer economically but
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but Also spiritually the spiritual
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benefits of challenging and especially
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meaningful work are well known hunter
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gatherers rarely feel like they are
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working everything is Meaningful and
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everything is challenging is hunting
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work is fishing work people sell real
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estate so they can hunt and fish who
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would hunt and fish so they could sell
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real estate when we look at a the common
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good B appreciation SL depreciation of
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human capital and C Net production of
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utility we are struck immediately by the
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fact that A and B are clearly aligned
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whereas C the Criterion that all modern
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thinkers agree on the GDP metric beloved
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by Libertarians and socialists alike is
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the misaligned metric analytically
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America is being driven like a rented
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car if not a rented mule and when we
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cast our intuitive eyes across the state
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of the nation we see that it is being
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driven like a rented car if not a rented
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mule suddenly now our formulas do not
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deceive us the old formula was wrong and
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the new formula which is even older was
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right China has been managed on the new
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formula for 40 years whose economy is
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better China for the most part Imports
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neither people nor Goods they seem to be
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dot doing fine without any Tamil brahin
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at all just saying let's quantify the
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poisonous effect of importing goods and
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our labor into an economy in the new
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formula this toxic impact is as clear as
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day if the labor demand elastic in the
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economy does not apply quality work to
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the labor Supply in elastic we will see
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clear depreciation in the human capital
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we may not be able to measure this
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effect EG by selling random subjects on
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some imaginary Global slave market but
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we can Define it in quantitative terms
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if there are not enough good jobs for
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all the Americans some of the Americans
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will become useless bums or they will
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have to take shitty jobs which
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will cause them to fall short of their
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human potential it will leave them less
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valuable as human beings as human
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capital as Government slaves see how
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easy this new math is if it seems
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paradoxical that accepting the principle
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that government slavery is the key to
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human freedom and flourishing it seems
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no less paradoxical that socialism is
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the way to ruin and impoverish a society
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but it always seems to work out that way
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everything rots when it has no owner
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human beings included once we realize
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that JN a 21st century economy the goal
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of matching labor demand to labor Supply
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is much more significant than the goal
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of maximizing the supply of Comforts and
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Pleasures to the the population either
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because according to my super spry
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analysis we are all government slaves or
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because in terms Hillary Clinton would
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be quite happy with purpose skill and
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meaning are more important to human
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existence than pixel count on your flat
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screen TV we get to turn liberal
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economics upside down and make it make
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sense again for instance if we have a
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lot of professional programmers who
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can't find jobs as such but have to be
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Walmart greeters we are racking up fat
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losses on these human assets from a
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depreciation standpoint it would be
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economic ideal to give them fake jobs
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but ideally they would not even know the
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jobs were fake instead we are pumping
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all the appreciation energy into these
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h-1bs who are human assets of another
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government while our own human capital
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rots on the couch the difference between
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migrant labor and free trade is clearly
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a difference of degree in both case we
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are using foreign labor to fulfill
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domestic labor demand therefore the
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appreciation is being foregone and human
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assets depreciate if they are not used
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they appreciate when used to the limit
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of potential again we are driving
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America like a rented car it is
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efficient to change the oil in a car you
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own but not when you rent we own this
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car I'm afraid we should act like it
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population acquisition of course there
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is an easy answer to this question keep
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the h-1bs then the state is appreciating
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its own assets isn't it actually it is
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capturing assets from other states
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sounds even better highly accretive to
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the balance sheet first of all the H1B
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is not an immigrant Visa it is a guest
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worker visa limited to 6 years to the
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extent that it has become a path to
16:36
permanent migration it is simply being
16:38
misused the same is true of the famous
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01 genius Visa there is actually no
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official USG program for repati justly
16:45
harvesting Global human capital if we
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were to design such a program it would
16:50
look very different from the H1B or even
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the o1 in theory there is certainly an
16:55
economic place for guest worker programs
16:57
labor shortages can render various kinds
16:59
of activity on economic even military
17:02
activity if you need a rocket program to
17:04
fight the Soviet Union and the best
17:06
Rockets are made in Nazi Germany why not
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import Nazi rocket scientists to put a
17:10
man on the moon don't worry you don't
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have to let them put a Nazi on the moon
17:15
and it is hard to blame Saudi Arabia for
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importing TCH and petroleum Engineers
17:19
What If instead of importing h-1bs we
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imported AAR we could even give it a
17:24
name which doesn't sound like you just
17:26
ran over a frog and it's like with recip
17:28
piece you can just import the code not
17:31
the coders but all these are genuinely
17:33
special cases when we look at the
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economic conditions under which such
17:37
programs were once established we might
17:39
find them reasonable however they are
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exceptional cases in the modern world in
17:44
these exceptional cases we see that
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domestic labor Supply is being stretched
17:48
to its edges preventing some whole new
17:50
universe from blossoming this is not at
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all the normal situation actually what
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we are doing with all this Mass
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migration in both the high skill and low
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skill areas is a cope for our inability
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to develop our own human capital it is
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especially noticeable that in low skill
18:05
employment we have both a native
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underclass that does not work and an
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imported hel class that does work while
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the high skill situation is more
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complicated we cannot pretend that the
18:15
government is following a rational
18:16
policy in this one area when the nature
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and motivation of the policy has nothing
18:20
to do with this analysis the USG is not
18:23
focused on developing its human capital
18:25
to the extent that it is acquiring
18:27
capital in this way it is not not
18:28
because it understands what it means to
18:30
be a country but for the opposite reason
18:32
as a cope for not understanding human
18:34
capital economics it wrecks its own
18:36
Capital as it scourers the world for
18:38
Replacements this is host moreover why
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would another country Let its most
18:43
valuable human capital emigrate
18:45
especially a third world country which
18:47
needs its Tamil brahin far more I feel
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than we do this question goes to the
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very nature of the post
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1,945 World Order which has always had a
18:57
bizarre science fictional Wendel wil
18:58
tell us of world government is there any
19:00
life left in that dream what if we shut
19:03
down the UN and no one noticed like what
19:06
are we even doing here then of course we
19:09
have the well-documented damage that
19:11
diversity causes to the social Fabric in
19:13
both neighborhoods and workplaces this
19:15
is settled science so there is no reason
19:18
to talk about it it only encourages the
19:20
deniers in this house Etc but we have to
19:23
agree with the H1B Defenders that the
19:25
impact here is not that great let's talk
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frankly about R for a moment in this
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house we believe in science race science
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within my lived experience middleclass
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immigration from India seems reminiscent
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of Irish and Italian immigration in the
19:39
early 20th century while the Irish and
19:41
Italians were quite UNC their children
19:44
were only mildly course today their
19:46
descendants if they live in a few small
19:48
cultural enclaves such as South Boston
19:50
or the Jersey Shore remain figures of
19:52
fun but the normal historical course
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aided of course by a 50-year migration
19:56
moratorium so profoundly racist that it
19:58
distinguished between northern and
19:59
southern Europeans is for Irish Italians
20:02
and Indians to assimilate more or less
20:04
perfectly across Generations Modo low
20:06
and non-trivial decline in the National
20:08
character which is sad but probably
20:11
would have happened anyway certainly the
20:13
character of wasps Jews Etc also
20:16
declined across the 20th century and
20:18
while India may be in some ways the
20:20
worst country in the world we can't say
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they're not sending their best all the
20:24
evidence is that they are sending their
20:25
best unlike some other regions you I or
20:28
Trump name and the best Indians can be
20:30
excellent surely there is a racial
20:32
reason why there are more Indian than
20:34
Chinese CEOs so all in all a mixed bag
20:38
in the Indian case it is less the action
20:40
that is wrong than the principle behind
20:42
the action because finally across the
20:45
board we sense that all the talk of the
20:47
objective advantages of mass migration
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is just what my father with his
20:50
Soprano's accent used to call pissing
20:52
down my neck and telling me it's
20:54
rainning none of this policy is
20:56
motivated by any kind of noble aim not
20:58
human Arian empathy and not technocratic
21:00
governance I believe that many
21:02
intellectuals genuinely believe in these
21:04
policies for these reasons not everybody
21:06
is a shill and some Live players are
21:08
even intellectuals I do not think Elon
21:11
Musk is motivated by the opportunity to
21:13
hire a few 85,000 dealer technicians but
21:17
the intellectuals are always the
21:18
exceptions and they are never the actual
21:20
cause Mass migration as a policy is
21:24
motivated by one of two things corporate
21:26
externalities or political ambition at
21:28
its most respectable it is a way for
21:30
businesses to save money by using
21:32
cheaper foreign labor at its least
21:34
respectable it is a design to gain power
21:36
for a small meritocratic oligarchy over
21:38
the whole of society by disrupting the
21:40
filia and oia of that Society while
21:42
diluting its vote the businesses should
21:45
realize that they can still win by being
21:47
the best so long as their competitors
21:49
also must use domestic labor the
21:51
oligarchy should be deported to Mars
21:53
someone told me elon's real plan is
21:55
actually to keep Earth but send the libs
21:57
to Mars alien immigration the real
22:00
systemic shock will be of course ai ai
22:04
is essentially equivalent to alien
22:06
immigration the aliens are a little
22:08
clumsy with their JavaScript at the
22:10
moment their driving isn't quite perfect
22:12
either in five or at most 10 years what
22:15
will our nepales Uber drivers here on
22:17
God knows what visa do it was long the
22:20
joke in Palo Alto that AI stood for
22:22
actually Indians but now silicon is
22:24
beating out carbon for rals Look Out
22:27
Below the effect of AI will be the same
22:30
effect that technology has all across
22:31
the productive sector it creates
22:33
tournament economy effects in which a
22:35
few rock stars rake in all the Bucks it
22:37
is a worse destroyer of Labor demand
22:39
than the spinning jenny and the steam
22:41
engine put together it will destroy
22:43
demand for human beings in the developed
22:44
world the developing world and probably
22:47
even on Mars human populations to
22:50
governments are left as residual
22:52
liabilities that need to be fed and in
22:54
some sense pleasured almost everyone is
22:57
a zero marginal prodct
22:59
employee at this point to protect any
23:01
kind of Humane existence it is necessary
23:03
to restrict the technology of production
23:05
in a way that maximizes highquality
23:07
labor demand we are essentially turning
23:09
real life into a video game a maximally
23:12
engaging video game we may even have
23:14
professional Dragon Fighters once we can
23:16
bioengineer real dragons the only
23:19
alternative I can see to such a policy
23:21
of artificial difficulty is one of fully
23:23
automatic luxury communism in which the
23:25
total absence of meaning makes Humanity
23:27
suffer a moral and then political
23:28
collapse this political collapse seems
23:30
likely to result in civilizational
23:32
suicide subjugation by barbarians and a
23:35
return to pre- pre-industrial technology
23:37
levels having lost all the secrets of
23:39
pre-industrial Technology as well the
23:41
species may survive unless there is some
23:44
kind of technical self-extinction scheme
23:46
which seems likely covid after all was
23:49
almost a dry run
Migration and the sovereign firm - Gray Mirror - Mencius Moldbug (Curtis Yarvin)
Skeptical Waves
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1,482 views  Dec 31, 2024
Migration and the sovereign firm - Gray Mirror - Mencius Moldbug (Curtis Yarvin)
Published Sunday December 29, 2024
By Curtis Yarvin
https://graymirror.substack.com/p/mig...


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Curtis Yarvin
American political blogger and computer scientist
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